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Gartner Uses “Hype Cycles” Model to Make Technology Predictions

7:30 am on August 22, 2006 | Category: Mobile Devices, Telecom Services

Mobile television is among the most over-hyped technologies currently under development, according to research firm Gartner.

Analysts using Gartnerâ€™s â€œhype cyclesâ€ research model say that mobile TV, IPTV, and broadband video phones are all at the so called â€œpeak of inflated expectations,â€ a phase where runaway enthusiasm and overly optimistic projections push a new technology to its limits.

The next phase in the cycle, which Gartner calls the â€œtrough of disillusionment,â€ is occupied by residential VoIP, as well as PC-based media centers. This stage is where new technologies fail to meet over-inflated expectations and begin to become unfashionable.

It is possible, however, to escape this trough via the â€œslope of enlightenment,â€ where vendors work hard to properly educate consumers about a productâ€™s application, risks, and benefits. HDTV, Video On Demand, and Wi-Fi networking have all reached this phase, according to Gartner.

Only once a technology manages to conquer this difficult slope does it encounter the so called â€œplateau of productivity,â€ where it demonstrates its benefits, is accepted by consumers, and enters its second and third generations. Digital TV and broadband internet are two technologies that have clearly reached this stage.

In a recent report, Gartner applied the hype cycles model to the current craze surrounding â€œhome networking,â€ where a number of different devices are connected throughout a home to create a single, unified environment of communication and entertainment.

This vision may be unrealistic, however, at least at the current time, due to the fact that most consumers lack knowledge about such advanced technological applications. Significant advances in troubleshooting and network management tools will likely be necessary if this vision is to become a reality.

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